<u>NFL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND</u>
49ERS at EAGLES
3 p.m., Eagles by 2 ½, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: Ignore the recency bias, outdoors of proof that Jalen Hurts’ shoulder is near 100%. The Eagles should not going to do to the 49ers protection what they did to the Giants in that mismatch. Yet public bettors are all around the Eagles and that’s a purple flag. For probably the most half this 12 months, they’ve crushed groups with their explosiveness. They’re going to be in a dogfight this week and that’s the form of sport that favors the guests. The 49ers’ wagon carries 12 straight SU wins into South Philly they usually’ve carried out it with rookie QB Brock Purdy exactly by enjoying their sort of sport. Kyle Shanahan has been masterful at maintaining Purdy out of unhealthy conditions the place he may flip the ball over, helped by the wealth of weapons round him. The Niners can run — the Achilles heel of the Eagles protection — and TE George Kittle finds open areas when Purdy is hurried — a key ingredient in opposition to the NFL’s greatest cross rush.
On the opposite facet of the ball there’s a best-on-best matchup between the Eagles’ O-line and the San Francisco entrance. But it’s the pace of LBs Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw that might make the distinction in opposition to a group that runs a lot RPO whereas defending the center of the sector the place Hurts likes to go. The Eagles took full benefit of the second degree of the Giants’ protection final week. It received’t occur right here. Wink Martindale blitzed Hurts on over 40% of the snaps final week. The Niners don’t must ship additional males with their entrance. Will Purdy outplay Hurts? No, however he received’t must outplay him. All that mentioned, we love the below in what shapes up because the a lot uglier of the 2 video games.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Niners and the below.
BENGALS at CHIEFS
6:30 p.m., Bengals by 1 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: We received’t understand how efficient Patrick Mahomes shall be till he will get on the sector, however for positive he’s not going to have the identical mobility on that ankle. Much of the Chiefs’ offense is hinged on bootlegs and his improvisational throws outdoors the pocket, so if he’s compromised in any respect it’s going to restrict what Andy Reid can sport plan. There aren’t any such questions on Joe Burrow. All he does is win. Similarly, once you take a look at the groups, the Chiefs are typically overvalued whereas the Bengals must be probably the most underrated group within the league over the past two seasons. Here they’re again within the AFC Championship sport on the identical area the place they shocked the Chiefs a 12 months in the past. They’ve crushed the Chiefs SU three straight instances, albeit by area targets, however they clearly have the formulation and are masters at making changes.
Last week’s win in snowy Buffalo was a living proof as they overcame the absence of three starters on the offensive line and established the run with 144 speeding yards at a 7.6-ypc clip. That method might work once more this week in opposition to a pliable Ok.C. run protection. Joe Mixon missed the common season matchup however Samaje Perine rushed for 106 yards in his absence. That shall be key to maintaining Ok.C.’s cross rush (55 common season sacks) off Burrow. It’s true. Mahomes is otherworldly. It’s doable he performs by way of the harm and dazzles. He’s Patrick Mahomes. But we’re not going to sleep on Burrow in an enormous sport. As for the over, these are in the beginning offensive groups. Even if Chad Henne has to step in, there needs to be greater than sufficient factors scored to push the full over.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: 49ers. Defense wins championships.
LAST WEEK: 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER/UNDER
PLAYOFFS: 5-5 ATS, 4-4-2 OVER/UNDER
BEST BETS: 1-1
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Source: www.bostonherald.com