Skymet Weather Forecast: Good rains are expected in this monsoon session. According to Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting company, the southwest monsoon will be normal in June-September. 75 percent of the rainfall in the month of June-September is through this monsoon. Its normal means that this time the rain will be better in the monsoon session. Skymet Weather President (Metrology) GP Sharma informed that if we talk about the long-term average (long period average), LPA will get 103 per cent rainfall in the period June-September. Sharma called it healthy normal. He said that the probability of normal monsoon in this monsoon session is about 60 per cent and the probability of more rain than normal is just 15 per cent.
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Good monsoon for the third consecutive year in 2021
In a monsoon session, if the rainfall is equal to 96-104 per cent of the long period average (LPA), it is considered normal. In such a situation, if the rainfall is estimated to be 103 per cent in the June-September period this year, it is normal. According to Sharma, 2021 is the third consecutive year when there will be a better monsoon. In the last two years, there was more rain than usual.
These are the estimates for Skymet for 2021
- LPA is expected to receive 106 per cent rainfall in June, 97 per cent in July, 99 per cent in August and 116 per cent in September.
- On an average, 166.9 mm in June is estimated to be 285.3 mm in July, 258.2 mm in August and 170.2 mm in September.
- During the entire monsoon season (June-September), there is a 10 per cent probability that the LPA will get more than 110 per cent rainfall, whereas in the monsoon session there is a 15 per cent chance of LPA getting 105-110 per cent of the rain.
- During the session, chances of getting 96-104 per cent rain i.e. normal monsoon are very high at around 60 per cent.
- LPA is expected to rain 90-95 per cent of the normal, which is just 15 per cent.
- Less than 90 per cent of LPA means the probability of drought is absolutely zero.