Covid-19 Pandemic Endemicity Phase: In view of the possibility of a third wave across the country, healthcare authorities are preparing hospitals to deal with it. However, now the Chief Scientist of the World Health Organization, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, says that the corona epidemic in India may in a way enter the endemicity phase. It is a matter of great relief. According to Swaminathan, the risk of corona infection can now range from normal to moderate and the way record cases were coming in India a few months ago, the situation is not going to come again.
The Chief Scientist of WHO said that the situation of corona epidemic in India will be according to the distribution of population and immunity of the people. In such a situation, where fewer people have been vaccinated, there may be an increase in cases in the next few months.
What is Endemicity
According to Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, a disease reaches the endemic stage when people learn to live with it. This means that the risk of the disease will be limited to a limited area and the risk of its spread can be estimated. According to Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, unlike an epidemic, not all people are at risk of disease. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), endemic people in a geographic area are at risk of disease.
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What did the health minister of Delhi say on the endemic phase?
Before the second wave came, Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain had said that the Pandemic Phase has ended in Delhi and now slowly we are moving towards the Endemic Phase. Giving the example of swine flu, Jain said that 10 years ago swine flu was a big threat in Delhi, but now some cases come every year. Similarly, the corona is not going to go away completely, rather we have to live with it and people will have to continue wearing masks. However, from April 1, the daily cases of Corona started increasing in Delhi and on April 1, 10 thousand new cases came out from 2720 daily cases in the next 10 days.
Throughout the month of April, there was a shortage of medical supplies, oxygen and hospital beds in the hospitals of Delhi and many people also lost their lives. Lockdown also had to be imposed to control the situation. Next month, 25512 cases came on 1st May, then it came down to 946 on 30th May. On Tuesday 24 August, 39 new corona cases were reported in the capital Delhi and due to this, no one has lost his life for the fifth consecutive day. According to a PTI report, many experts, including the medical director of LNGP, believe that in 12-24 months, the corona worldwide will reach the endemic phase and then the need to see the figures on a daily basis will probably end.
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The pandemic doesn’t end completely?
Most of the disease pathogens that have affected people in the last few decades have not been completely eradicated but have been present in some form or the other. It is impossible to eliminate them completely. Diseases like malaria have been going on with the development of human civilization and are still present. Similarly there are TB, measles, leprosy and Ebola virus, Mers, SARS and SARS-CoV-2 (Corona). Even the plague affects people back every decade. According to experts, there is only smallpox, which has been largely eradicated through vaccination.
Delta variant remains at risk
According to immunologist Jonathan Grad, the corona epidemic becoming endemic means that enough people will develop immunity to it. This ability will develop in them either through vaccination or through infection. Thus the rate of infection will drop. However, getting ‘Heard Immunity’ doesn’t seem possible right now due to new variants like the Delta variant.