Dalal Street Week Ahead: The week ended April 1 was great for the market. The benchmark index gained more than 3 per cent on reduction in volatility, softening oil prices, FII buying, pick-up in industrial activity and positive news related to the Ukraine-Russia crisis.
The BSE Sensex rose 1,914 points to 59,277 and the Nifty50 gained 517 points to reach the level of 17,670. On the other hand, the strength of 3-3 per cent was recorded in the midcap and smallcap indices.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research, Religare Broking said, “Markets are following the global trend and positive developments on the Russia-Ukraine front could lead to further strength. He said, “The stocks may see movement due to better results of some companies, although the contribution of the banking sector will be important to touch the zone of 17,800-18,100.”
Here are 10 important factors for the next week:
RBI Monetary Policy
RBI Monetary Policy: The meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is to be held from April 6 to April 8. Broadly speaking, experts feel that the chances of a rate hike are slim. However, most central banks have raised rates. Yesha Shah, Head (Equity Research), Samco Securities said, “Growth is the priority of RBI over inflation. The situation has changed due to war and hence there is a need to increase domestic demand. The government’s budget support to increase borrowing has added to the confusion of the RBI.
Ukraine-Russia crisis
Ukraine-Russia Crisis: The occurrence of the geopolitical crisis is a big relief for the markets. There are positive developments in Ukraine-Russia peace talks. However, the UK ministry said that Russia’s air activities are now increasing in southeast Ukraine. There are reports indicating that the peace talks in Turkey are showing some progress.
Around 100 smallcaps gained 10-25%, market rally seen in a volatile week
oil prices
Oil Prices: Due to the softening of oil prices, there was a rally in the market last week. Now if it remains around $ 100 per barrel, then it will be a relief for importing countries like India. This can also give a lot of support to the market. International benchmark Brent crude futures are at $104.4 per barrel, having weakened 13.5 per cent on a weekly basis. Demand concerns have increased due to the lockdown in China.
FII Trend
FII Flow: After the selling of foreign investors since October, 2021, their buying interest seems to be returning. Experts believe that if the buying continues, the market can easily cross the 18,000 level in the coming days. FII bought shares worth Rs 5,590 crore on a weekly basis. The market is getting strong support from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), who bought Rs 5,000 crore this week as well.
FPI withdrew Rs 41,000 crore from the Indian market in March, know why selling continues for 6 months
economic data
Economic Data: Markets will be eyeing the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services Composite PMI data for March, which will be released on Monday and Wednesday respectively. Apart from this, the figures of foreign exchange reserves for the week ending April 1, bank loans and deposits till the fortnight ending March 25 will also be released.
global signal
Global Cues: The Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday. Experts believe that the Federal Reserve will provide more details about policy tightening against inflation.
Keep an eye on these global figures next week:
technical view
Technical View: Nifty is expected to move towards the levels of 17,800-18,000 next week, said Nagraj Shetty, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities. Before this, there may be some decline from the heights.
F&O signals
F&O Cues: As per option data, Nifty50 is expected to trade in the range of 17,500-18,000 on an immediate basis, while the broad trading range is likely to remain at 17,300-18,000.
At the beginning of the April series, most calls on a weekly basis showed open interest at 18,000, followed by 17,600 and 17,500. At the same time, most of the put option interest was at 17,500, followed by 17,400 and 17,600.
ICICI Direct said, FIIs have long positions in stock futures with the index. We should remain positive on Nifty till there is no major change in their position.
India Wicks
India VIX : Volatility has reduced significantly below 20 levels, which is giving strength to the market. The fear in the market is gauged from the India VIX Index. On a weekly basis, it has fallen from 21.3 to 18.44, the lowest level since February 10 this year. According to experts, its long stay below 20 can be a good factor for the market.
Corporate Action
Corporate Action : The following major corporate actions are likely to be seen in the coming week:
Disclaimer: The views expressed on moneycontrol.com are the personal views of the experts. Website or management is not responsible for this. Money Control advises users to consult a certified expert before taking any investment decision.
,