Real GDP growth in the second quarter of the current financial year can range from (-) 12 to (-) 15 percent. Whereas in the third quarter it can range from (-) 5 percent to (-) 10 percent. According to the report, real GDP growth in the fourth quarter can range from (-) 2 to (-) 5 percent. The report said the country’s GDP growth declined by 23.9 percent in the first quarter due to a lockdown imposed since March 25 to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection.
According to EcoRAP, there is a need to revive the construction, trade, hotels and aviation sectors for the economy. Apart from this, transport services should be restarted. According to the report, in addition to government financial measures, RBI should push infrastructure by issuing bonds.
Two positive signs amid a steep decline in GDP
The EcoRap report states that two positive things have appeared recently. The first is the credit data of the Reserve Bank of July. This indicates that there has been an increase in credit in July in all major sectors. In particular, there has been a significant increase in micro and small enterprises (MSEs), agriculture and allied sectors and personal loan credit. Second, there are new projects awarded in the first quarter for various sectors. This includes projects related to roadways, basic chemical, electricity, community services such as hospitals, water sewage pipelines.