The world’s largest vaccination program in India has started from January 16 and in the third phase starting from May 1, people above 18 years of age will be linked to it. According to the research team of SBI, the vaccine is the most important tool in the fight against corona infection. According to the SBI Ecowrap report, according to the experience of other countries, a second dose of 15% of the population’s vaccine may stabilize a corona infection, meaning that the risk of its progression will be reduced. According to the report, by October 2021, 15 percent of the population in India will get the second dose. According to the report of the SBI Research Team, it is impacting the people who have not got the vaccine.
The SBI EcoRap report has been prepared by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor of the bank. According to this report, some states have imposed lockdowns / restrictions, due to which the growth in the financial year 2021-22 may be affected. The report revised the growth projection for FY 2022 and according to this, real GDP could be 10.4 per cent and nominal GDP 14.2 per cent in the current financial year. According to the report, corona infection may decline from the third week of May.
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Corona case may peak during mid-May
According to the SBI ECORAP report, corona cases may decline from the third week of May. India’s recovery rate was 97 percent at the beginning of the second wave, which has now reached 82.5 percent in 69 days. Compared to other countries, the recovery rate at the peak of the second wave of Corona in India will be 77.8 percent and this peak can be till the middle of May. According to the assessment of the SBI Research Team, on the basis of a 1% fall in the recovery rate, there is an increase of 1.85 lakh in the active cases.
Other countries were also badly affected by the second wave
India had managed the first wave of Corona epidemic in a good way, but now the second wave is proving more dangerous. However, this is not only happening with India, but also in developed countries, when the second wave came, the limitations of health infrastructure were revealed there. Most European countries and other countries imposed a lockdown in their country for a week to 6 months due to the second wave.
Highlights of SBI Ecowrap Report
- During the last days of December 2020 and the middle of February 2021, there was a decline in corona cases coming every day, but during this time there was also a decline in tests. However, it should not happen now that the tests should be reduced to show fewer cases as it can increase the infection on a large scale.
- It is believed that due to elections and religious gathering in public places, Corona cases have increased in the electoral states. Although the movement decreased in important states like Maharashtra, Delhi and Chhattisgarh, the cases increased here. Cases have increased despite the lockdown in Maharashtra. This proves that corona infection is not only spreading through humans but also through air. In such a situation, public places should be widely sanitized.
- Mumbai has the highest number of deaths in the 60-69 age group due to Corona but 13.8 per cent of those who died between 12 April and 25 April 2021 were under 50 years of age. From this, it can be inferred that mutants are increasing covid cases in India and it is having more effect on those who have not been vaccinated.
- Maharashtra may have 9.5 lakh active cases till the peak level in the middle of May while there are 6.7 lakh active cases at this time. When the second wave of Corona will peak in the country, then 26 percent active cases can be from Maharashtra. After this, most infections are expected to occur in Karnataka where the active cases of Corona at peak level can increase from 3 lakhs to 3.5 lakhs at present. 95.7 percent active cases can be from only 16 major states.
- By October 2021, 104.8 crore doses will be given to people across the country if vaccine production increases and new vaccines are imported. Of this, 15 percent of the population will be fully vaccinated, ie, both doses will be given while 63 percent will be given one dose. According to the experience of other countries, if 15 percent of the population gets the second dose of vaccine, then the infection will stabilize, which means that the risk of its progression will be reduced.
- If in the initial stage, it would be better to adopt cluster based approach for immunization. In addition, under the PLI (Production Linked Incentive) scheme, vaccines should be given incentives to increase production locally. In addition, elderly and disabled people should go home and get vaccinated.
Lockdown and Restrictions Affect Economic Activity
SBI business activity fell to 75.7 per cent in April 2021, which is almost equal to August 2020 last year. This is 24.3 per cent lower than before Corona, indicating a direct impact on economic activity directly due to the lockdown / restriction. Apart from Labor Participation and Electricity Consumption in April, there has been a decline in other indicators, indicating that the bottlenecks in the labor market can be managed which could not have happened in the first wave of Corona.
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