Budget 2022: Union Budget is a big event for the market every year, which is closely watched by the market. In recent years, the budget has become less important from the point of view of big announcements. Because the government is seen announcing big decisions before and after the budget. Despite this, the eyes of every segment of the economy are kept on the budget with expectations.
Statistics show that there have been 6 years in the last 10 in which the bears have dominated the months before the budget. In 2016, the Sensex had lost 7.5 per cent in the first month before the budget. Similarly, in 2013, it had seen a decline of 6.2 percent, while in 2012, the Sensex had lost 3.8 percent in the first month of the budget. Similarly, there was a decline of 0.8 percent in this period in 2014 and 0.7 percent in 2015. In contrast, in the first one month of the Union Budget, the Sensex had grown by 5.7 per cent in 2017. Whereas in 2018, it had seen a rise of 6.2 percent. Similarly, in 2021, there was an increase of 1.5 percent in the first one month of the budget, while in 2019 there was an increase of 0.6 percent in the first one month of the budget.
Let’s try to know who will dominate the market in the first month of Union Budget 2022, either the Bulls or the Bears.
There is a general opinion among market experts that in the month of January before the budget, the overall market will be positive, but due to the new variant Omicron of Corona, the effect of the worldwide chaos will be seen on the Indian markets. Apart from this, the fear of increasing interest rates in the US will also dominate the Indian markets.
After the Q3 business update on this Tata Group stock by Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, what is the analyst’s advice, let us know?
Divam Sharm of Green Portfolio It is to be said that at present the market seems to be acting on the basis of indications of a possible increase in interest rates in the US. The minutes of the US Fed’s December policy meet indicate that the period of increasing interest rates in the US may start earlier than expected i.e. from March 2022. Apart from this, news related to corona virus will also continue to have its effect on the market for the next 2-3 months and weeks.
Divam Sharm further says that before the budget we expect the market to remain flat or negative trend. Because the market seems to be more dependent on global cues and macro data at this time.
Significantly, the Finance Minister will present the Union Budget for the financial year 2023 on February 1, 2022. In the last 4 trading sessions of the current month, the market has seen a gain of more than 2 percent. The market has been seen to benefit from the change in the mood of foreign institutional investors. Since the beginning of the new year, FIIs have been seen buying again and so far they have bought Rs 3,000 crore in the Indian equity market while being net sellers in the last two months.
Divam Sharma of Ashish Sarangi of Pickright Technologies and Abhay Agarwal of Piper Serica on market trends in the first month of Budget is different from. Ashish Sarangi and Abhay Aggarwal say that the mood of Dalal Street appeared to improve in December 2021 and if the concerns related to Corona subside, then in January before the Union Budget, the market will see a boom.
Abhay Agarwal of Piper Serica It is said that for the last few years, the importance of the budget for investors has been decreasing continuously because the governments have been taking important decisions related to tax rates and financial policies even outside the budget, but still the government on financial discipline and economic development from the budget. Get an idea of the point of view.
Ashish Sarangi of Pickright Technologies It is expected that the government will present a strong budget. In the month of January, we are seeing every possibility of the market continuing to rise and in the near term Nifty has the power to touch its previous high of 18600. He also said that along with IT, we can see a boom in infrastructure and banking sector in the month of January. However, the budget day will decide the future direction.
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