After the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic revival is taking place rapidly and business activities are now almost at pre-pandemic levels.
Indian Economy
After the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic revival is taking place at a rapid pace and business activities are now almost at pre-pandemic levels. Japan’s brokerage company Nomura said this in a report. The Nomura India Business Opening Index (Nomura India Resumption Index -NIBRI) rose to 96.4 on Sunday from 94.9 in the previous week and is only 3.6 percentage points lower than pre-pandemic levels.
Indicators for movement of people such as Google Workplace and retail and entertainment indices improved to 2.4 and 5.1 percent, respectively. Electricity demand fell by 2.8 percent last week after rising 1.4 percent from pre-pandemic levels. The labor participation rate stood at 40.4 as against 40.6 percent earlier.
Signs of V Shape Growth
According to the brokerage company, the monthly figures for June indicate an increase in (V) from low levels in May. According to the report, the GST e-way bill stood at 2.82 crore in the first fortnight of July as against 2.92 crore in June. Rail freight revenue remained stagnant and power demand moderated. But the reason for this is seasonal. Business activities continue.
According to the brokerage company, the pace of vaccination has been slow so far in July. In June this average was 38 lakhs per day which has now come down to 36 lakhs per day. At the same time, the cases of infection remain at a high of about 39,000 per day. Nomura has cautioned that the movement has increased since July and the target of widespread vaccination is still far away. Thus, the major risk in the way of India’s growth revival is the threat of a third wave during this period.
Corona’s second wave was more dangerous
At the same time, a survey by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) said that the lockdown during the second wave was mainly imposed to limit social events or overcrowding. Economic activities were not affected much by these. Nearly 60 percent of CEOs surveyed said their company’s sales would improve more rapidly than in the first wave of the pandemic.
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