UP Assembly Elections 2022: The ruling BJP and the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal alliance in 55 assembly constituencies, with parts of western UP and Rohilkhand region going to polls on Monday for the second phase of Uttar Pradesh elections. There will be a direct competition between The region has the largest number of Muslim voters and also a good number of OBC population. However, in contrast to the dominance of Jats in the first phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh elections, different OBC and MBC castes have different presence.
This is the area where Akhilesh Yadav’s SP performed best in 2017. Of its total 47 MLAs, 15 were from this region. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections also, the SP-BSP alliance gave a tough challenge to the BJP. Out of nine Lok Sabha constituencies, BJP lost six. SP and BSP had won three each.
The districts where polling is being held on February 14 are Saharanpur, Bijnor, Sambhal, Rampur, Bareilly, Badaun, Shahjahanpur, Amroha and Moradabad. The Muslim population in the region ranges from 30% to 44% in some districts. It is no surprise that SP, Congress and BSP have maximum number of Muslim candidates in this phase and region.
Altogether, 79 Muslim candidates are in the fray, including the lone Muslim candidate from the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Hamza Ali Khan is contesting against Azam Khan’s son Abdullah Azam Khan of SP from Swar Tanda seat on BJP ally Apna Dal ticket.
Muslim vote
In the 2017 assembly elections, the BSP and the SP-Congress alliance actively wooed the community, dividing the Muslim vote in the region. This division helped the BJP win important seats in districts like Bijnor, Moradabad, Sambhal, Rampur and Amroha.
The BJP had won three out of four seats in Amroha district with a total population of around 35% Muslim votes. In Bijnor, it had won six seats, and in Moradabad two. It won two seats each in Sambhal and Rampur. All these districts have 32 to 44% Muslim population.
This time in some major districts, the SP has taken a tough stand on Muslim faces. The party has fielded Muslim candidates in all six constituencies of Moradabad – Kanth, Thakurdwara, Moradabad Dehat, Moradabad Nagar, Kundarki and Bilari. BSP and Congress have given five tickets each to Muslims here.
Of the five assembly constituencies in Rampur, the SP has fielded three Muslim candidates, including its leader Azam Khan from Rampur and his son Abdullah Azam from Swar Tanda. Congress and BSP have fielded two Muslim leaders each.
UP Elections 2022: ‘Akhilesh himself does not want Azam Khan to come out of jail’, CM Yogi’s big statement amid the second phase of voting
In Amroha, sitting SP MLA Mehboob Ali is once again in the electoral fray. He is facing challenge from Nadez Ayaz of BSP and Salim Khan of Congress. BJP has fielded Ram Singh this time in the hope of dividing Muslim votes.
SP has fielded two Muslim candidates for eight seats in Bijnor. The party is expecting around 11% of Jats along with other OBC communities to give significant support. The BSP has fielded four Muslims in the district.
The SP has changed its stand in the Deoband constituency of Saharanpur, which has Islamic seminary Darul Ulum Deoband and has around 1 lakh Muslim votes. The party had initially given ticket to a Muslim candidate here, but Kartikeya Rana was brought in in his place. Congress and AIMIM have fielded Muslim candidates here.
SC/OBC Factor
The second phase of elections is also an interesting case study of the OBC and MBC equation. Unlike the first phase, where the Jat factor was dominant, the second phase has the importance of distinct OBC communities in different regions. From Saharanpur in the west to Badaun, Bareilly and Shahjahanpur in the east, OBC and Dalit votes differ in their sub-caste configuration.
In Saharanpur, the core Jatav-Dalit vote-bank is often considered close to that of the BSP, estimated to be around 17%, while the OBC minus Jat is around 17%.
Maurya, Kushwaha, Saini and Gurjar OBC communities dominate here. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah visiting the district ahead of the elections, BJP has given a lot of emphasis on this area.
In Bijnor, the SP-RLD is dependent on around 11% Jat voters. There are about 13% Jatav Dalits and 10% MBC voters in the region, which mainly includes Mauryas and Kushwahas, but Mauryas, Shakyas and Gurjars also have a good presence in the region, and together they account for about 15% of voters.
Assembly Elections 2022 LIVE Updates
Badaun district with the largest population of Yadav and Ahir voters is naturally one of the high hopes for the Samajwadi Party. The party, traditionally seen as a stronghold of the SP, suffered a setback in the 2019 general elections and before that in the 2017 assembly polls mainly due to the consolidation of non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits.
The division of Muslim and Yadav vote banks also hurt its prospects. This time, the SP will expect a larger consolidation of Yadavs and around 22% Muslims in the region.
Bareilly and Shahjahanpur are big forces for BJP. In 2017, the BJP won all six seats in Bareilly and five out of six in Shahjahanpur. In the Bareilly region, OBC Kurmi, Patel, Maurya and Kushwaha communities make up about 30% of the population. He is with BJP since 2014. Farmer and Lodhi communities have a significant presence in Shahjahanpur. The OBC population spread across the constituencies is estimated to be around 32%. Muslims constitute 19% of the total population.
,