Despite the chances stacked in opposition to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s run on the White House, his marketing campaign isn’t so novel or fringe that President Biden ought to swiftly dismiss the scion of the highly effective political household and certain victor of the primary Democratic main contest, consultants inform the Herald.
RFK Jr., as he’s popularly known as, the son of the previous lawyer basic and New York Sen. Robert Kennedy, introduced he would comply with in his father’s footsteps and search the presidency in April, successfully answering the query of whether or not Biden would sail into the final election absent the load of responding to his report all through a main contest.
“If you are Joe Biden, this is the last thing you wanted,” Ken Cosgrove, a professor of political science and authorized research at Suffolk University, instructed the Herald. “He’s sort of a hybrid of Bernie Sanders and Trump.”
“I think he’s identified a market space that certainly exists. People don’t necessarily want socialism, on the other hand they want to feel like their interests are represented, and it’s just not a good time in the country to be associated with any kind of establishment,” Cosgrove stated.
According to polling aggregator RealClearPolitics, Kennedy is presently averaging about 50 factors behind within the main, inching towards 15% help in opposition to Biden’s 64% common. Author Marianne Williamson, who additionally ran in 2020, is polling at underneath 6%.
The nephew of former President John F. Kennedy has discovered a house amongst a liberal voting base uncertain of their authorities or massive establishments after the COVID-19 pandemic and associated masks mandates and vaccine rollouts, Cosgrove defined. Despite his well-heeled background, Kennedy speaks to an anti-establishment wing of his celebration that has solely grown as the results of their regard for the sitting Democratic president.
“Much like Trump,” Cosgrove stated.
Taking on an unpopular presidential incumbent from contained in the Democratic Party isn’t even new for a member of the Kennedy household.
RFK Jr.’s uncle, the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, launched a marketing campaign in opposition to then President Jimmy Carter forward the 1980 presidential contest after polling confirmed he may be capable to beat the unpopular president. He went on to win 12 states and greater than 37% of the favored vote.
Dante Scala, a professor of political science and knowledgeable on the presidential main on the University of New Hampshire, stated there’s some similarity between the contests, however that “the differences outweigh the parallels.”
The largest distinction is the Kennedys: RFK Jr. will not be his uncle.
“Kennedy, even post-Chappaquiddick, was still seen as a legitimate candidate in a way that RFK Jr. is not,” Scala stated.
According to Scala, folks had floated Sen. Kennedy’s identify as a possible presidential candidate for a decade after his brothers had been assassinated, and when he ultimately launched a marketing campaign it was taken severely even supposing it was by no means “firing on all cylinders.”
“He was still a prominent, sitting U.S. senator,” Scala stated.
Sen. Kennedy was a celebration insider, Scala stated, whereas RFK Jr. doesn’t have the help of his celebration. Nor does the Kennedy identify maintain the sway amongst a youthful voters that it did with older generations.
“It’s tough to say what RFK Jr. really represents within the Democratic party,” he stated.
Despite their variations, likelihood is good RFK Jr. does what his uncle didn’t and wins the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire main, placing stress on the incumbent.
“I don’t think Joe Biden is going to put his name on the New Hampshire primary ballot,” Scala stated. “I think RFK stands a good chance of winning the New Hampshire Democratic primary. You could argue about whether that means Biden lost — does that mean he loses if he doesn’t play — it means that RFK stands a decent chance of gaining some momentum.”
The Democratic National Committee has tried to alter which state holds the primary main, however New Hampshire hasn’t been in a position to adjust to the reordering attributable to a state legislation requiring them to vote first. Biden’s crew has threatened to disregard New Hampshire altogether — and Iowa, the place the primary caucusing normally happens — in the event that they don’t let the DNC’s selection of states vote first.
“I think the only reason he would be a real threat to Joe Biden is the bungling of Joe Biden’s people with New Hampshire,” Cosgrove stated.
Kennedy may additionally see a critical enhance to his marketing campaign if former President Donald Trump is just too engaged with authorized considerations to run a marketing campaign. Without Trump because the potential nominee to run in opposition to, Biden’s main message – that he can beat the forty fifth President – loses worth.
“I think this can become quite damaging if this goes on too long,” Cosgrove stated.
Kennedy’s marketing campaign and the New Hampshire Democratic Party didn’t return requests for remark.
Source: www.bostonherald.com”