Childs Walker | Baltimore Sun (TNS)
BALTIMORE — At least Mage’s homeowners and his coach, Gustavo Delgado, determined to run their horse within the Preakness Stakes two weeks after his surprising triumph within the Kentucky Derby.
Because with out the Derby champion — and bear in mind, final yr’s stunning winner, Rich Strike, didn’t attempt for the second jewel within the Triple Crown — this might be a grim race to hype.
There are large names aplenty among the many trainers, however Bob Baffert, Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox aren’t coming to Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore with essentially the most achieved 3-year-olds of their barns. Mage won’t face a single returning challenger from the Derby.
Setting the standard of the sphere apart, the Preakness will go off within the wake of an unsettling Derby meet during which seven horses died in a nine-day span at Churchill Downs. Dark headlines detailing the game’s troubles competed with these hailing Mage’s cost to victory.
Can the Preakness flip the Triple Crown narrative in a brighter course? Here are 5 storylines to observe as Saturday’s publish time attracts close to:
Does Mage have what it takes to change into greater than a pleasant story?
He was not as lengthy a shot as Rich Strike the yr earlier than, however at 15-1, Mage was not precisely on the tip of handicappers’ tongues as they sorted by way of Derby contenders. He had run simply 3 times and received simply as soon as, developing quick in two Derby preps towards his Florida-based rival, Forte. His coach, Delgado, was a star in Venezuela earlier than coming to the United States a couple of decade in the past however had but to interrupt by way of in a race just like the Derby.
Mage ensured nobody will overlook him or Delgado once more along with his spectacular transfer to cross Two Phil’s down the stretch at Churchill Downs. Aided by affected person steerage from jockey Javier Castellano, who had by no means received a Derby in his Hall of Fame profession, he vaulted to the highest of an unsettled 3-year-old class.
Delgado and the colt’s homeowners didn’t commit instantly to a Preakness run. Of course, the Triple Crown was attractive, they mentioned, however they’d been cautious in retaining Mage out of races as a 2-year-old, and so they supposed to remain that method. Only after watching him thrive in morning gallops the week after his Derby win did they agree he was able to cope with the two-week turnaround from the primary leg of the Triple Crown to the second.
Mage is straightforward to root for, an underdog with partaking human connections who apprehensive they’d gone over their modest funds once they bought him for $290,000 final May in Timonium. But is he a doubtlessly nice horse?
Delgado believes that, as a result of he was so calmly raced earlier than the Derby, he nonetheless has room to enhance. Mage received’t essentially have the ability to present that development towards a weaker subject at Pimlico. But he must win this race to achieve a better maintain on the general public creativeness. Otherwise, he’ll be a part of the road of current Derby champs — Justify in 2018 was the final to additionally take the Preakness — who by no means managed to comply with up their defining victories.
Is this the weakest Preakness subject in current reminiscence?
Almost each high proprietor and coach factors towards the Derby, in order that’s the place we see the 3-year-olds considered greatest in school. The Preakness is inevitably an also-ran by comparability, however organizers might historically rely on at the very least a number of Derby contenders to attempt once more in Baltimore.
Not in 2023.
Trainers merely don’t really feel comfy operating on two weeks’ relaxation anymore. Even those that have been blissful to do it prior to now, equivalent to Asmussen and Keith Desormeaux, mentioned thanks however no thanks with Derby horses Disarm and Confidence Game. Larry Rivelli didn’t appear to offer a lot consideration to prepping Two Phil’s for an instantaneous rematch with Mage. Cox made the identical determination with third-place Derby finisher Angel of Empire.
Forte, scratched the morning of the Derby due to a foot bruise, appeared on his method to Pimlico for an opportunity to retake his place atop the category. But that additionally proved unattainable as a result of Kentucky laws, honored by Maryland, mentioned he couldn’t run for at the very least two weeks after being scratched by a state veterinarian.
So the Preakness is left with Mage and a bunch of horses that couldn’t accumulate sufficient qualifying factors (save for Blazing Sevens, whom we’ll get to) to make the Derby subject. Fans are left to surprise if the powers that be on the Maryland Jockey Club and the New York Racing Association will ever have severe conversations about extending the Triple Crown calendar.
The hook of Mage’s Triple Crown quest would possibly elevate this race above final yr’s version, however the issues with attracting high 3-year-olds to the Preakness aren’t going away.
So the sphere isn’t nice, however which contenders might choose off Mage?
No coach has been hotter than Cox in recent times, and the Kentucky native will attempt to full his private Triple Crown with First Mission, the spectacular winner of the April 15 Lexington Stakes.
Cox, not given to hyperbole, has spoken glowingly of First Mission’s current coaching type and potential. “I think he’s a horse that’s meant to get better with distance and age,” he mentioned on a convention name final week.
The colt’s Beyer Speed Figure (a measure that accounts for distance and observe situations) from his Lexington victory would have match nicely with the perfect prep performances of high Derby contenders.
He’s worthy of his standing as a 5-2 second selection within the Preakness morning line.
Listed proper behind him at 4-1 is Baffert trainee National Treasure, considered a possible high Derby contender after he completed third within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile final fall. We would possibly have a look at this colt’s fourth-place end within the Santa Anita Derby, the actual fact he has received simply as soon as in 5 profession begins, and say “not good enough.”
But National Treasure has run competitively towards elite competitors and has flashed star potential in coaching. Baffert, it doesn’t matter what you consider the treatment violations that stored him away from the Derby the final two years, is nearly as good as any coach at making ready for a giant race.
Many of the identical issues might be mentioned of Asmussen-trained Red Route One, who has severe closing velocity and appeared on observe for the Derby earlier than his disappointing sixth-place end within the Arkansas Derby. His outcomes — two wins in 9 profession begins — don’t counsel he’ll make as a lot noise as his father, the good Gun Runner, however Asmussen has mentioned he sees acquainted vitality and bodily toughness in Red Route One.
Can Chad Brown swoop in for one more Preakness win?
Brown’s horse, Blazing Sevens, deserves his personal class given the coach’s observe report on the Preakness, which he received final yr with Early Voting and in 2017 with Cloud Computing.
As he did with these horses, Brown steered Blazing Sevens away from the Derby (he had sufficient qualifying factors to make the sphere) in favor of retaining him contemporary for the second leg of the Triple Crown.
With a third-place end within the Blue Grass Stakes and an eighth-place end within the Fountain of Youth Stakes as his most up-to-date outcomes, Blazing Sevens doesn’t appear as primed for a breakout efficiency as Early Voting did final yr. But Brown’s aptitude for analyzing fields and understanding when to pounce can’t be questioned. His strategy to the Triple Crown sequence may not be romantic, however his homeowners aren’t complaining, and nobody could be shocked if he’s again within the winner’s circle come Saturday night.
Will racehorse deaths proceed to hang-out this Triple Crown?
For many followers, the seven deaths within the run-up to the Derby overshadowed the results of the race. Though Kentucky officers discovered no instant connection between the deadly breakdowns and acted shortly to droop coach Saffie Joseph Jr., who had two horses die abruptly and inexplicably, the demise toll pressured trade stakeholders to reply tough questions on racetrack security. The federal Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) is investigating.
Maryland officers are crossing their fingers that Pimlico and the Preakness will keep away from comparable scrutiny. They’re assured within the situation of the observe and in strict veterinary protocols enforced by HISA’s racetrack security program, however nobody concerned believes deaths are utterly preventable.
Two horses died on Preakness day in 2016. Imagine the outcry if we see a repeat this yr, two weeks after a death-haunted Derby.
The trade has made strides in decreasing fatalities, and officers hope HISA will assist give the game better credibility because the federal authority’s oversight kicks in. But racetrack security is an everlasting concern with out a cure-all answer. Underlying nervousness across the prospect of extra deaths will probably be unavoidable this Preakness week.
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