With the playoffs kicking off this weekend, it’s time for a particular version of the weekly NFL energy rankings.
Before the wild-card spherical begins, right here’s a take a look at how the 14 playoff groups measure up as Super Bowl contenders, considering weekly efficiency, accidents and roster depth.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Regular-season end: 14-3, AFC West champions, No. 1 seed
DVOA profile (through Football Outsiders): 1st offense, seventeenth protection, nineteenth particular groups, 4th total
Odds to win Super Bowl (through FanDuel): +330
The Chiefs have the perfect quarterback, the perfect play-caller and home-field benefit all through the playoffs. That seems like a recipe for one more Super Bowl title. Kansas City gained 10 of its final 11 video games to finish the common season, and even when it did lose, it was by no means by greater than 4 factors. While the Chiefs have been susceptible to turnovers and have struggled to discover a constant kicking sport, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been practically unstoppable, recording essentially the most offensive yards (5,614) in a single season in NFL historical past.
2. Buffalo Bills
Regular-season end: 13-3, AFC East champions, No. 2 seed
DVOA profile: 2nd offense, 4th protection, 1st particular groups, 1st total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +420
Nobody knew how the Bills would reply after they noticed teammate Damar Hamlin collapse on the sector from cardiac arrest. All it took was one play to seek out out. Less than per week after Hamlin’s damage, Nyheim Hines returned the opening kickoff 96 yards for a landing in Sunday’s 35-23 win over the Patriots, setting off a raucous celebration each within the Buffalo stands and across the league. It’s onerous to miss a possible storybook ending for the Bills, who’ve handled a lot grief of their group this season. On the sector, they’ve been led by star quarterback Josh Allen and a stout protection that’s pressured 27 turnovers, together with 17 interceptions.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Regular-season end: 14-3, NFC East champions, No. 1 seed
DVOA profile: third offense, sixth protection, thirteenth particular groups, third total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +500
Quarterback Jalen Hurts’ shoulder damage was nearly the one factor that slowed down the Eagles this season. Hurts took an enormous leap ahead in his second yr because the starter, producing the most effective dual-threat seasons in NFL historical past to steer one of many league’s greatest offenses. The addition of star extensive receiver A.J. Brown helped open up the passing sport, permitting Hurts and second-year receiver DeVonta Smith to thrive. The protection additionally delivered a league-leading 70 sacks, together with 16 from free-agent addition Haason Reddick. Just about each transfer common supervisor Howie Roseman made this offseason paid off, making Philadelphia a respectable Super Bowl contender.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Regular-season end: 13-4, NFC West champions, No. 2 seed
DVOA profile: sixth offense, 1st protection, fifteenth particular groups, 2nd total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +550
Things didn’t go fairly as deliberate for the 49ers, however they ended up precisely the place they needed to be. After second-year quarterback Trey Lance was misplaced for the season in Week 1, veteran Jimmy Garoppolo made an unbelievable return to assist information San Francisco to a 7-4 begin. Then he suffered a damaged foot in Week 13, thrusting rookie Brock Purdy — the final choose within the 2022 draft — into the highlight. All Purdy has achieved since then is win, posting the second-highest passer ranking (119.0) via a quarterback’s first 5 begins within the Super Bowl period. We know the Niners’ protection is sweet sufficient to hold the crew to a title. If Purdy can proceed that sizzling streak into the postseason, coach Kyle Shanahan may lastly win that elusive ring.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Regular-season end: 12-4, AFC North champions, No. 3 seed
DVOA profile: 4th offense, eleventh protection, 18th particular groups, fifth total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +750
The Bengals’ Super Bowl hangover lasted two video games. After shedding to Pittsburgh and Dallas to open 2022, Cincinnati gained 12 of its subsequent 14 video games, together with an eight-game profitable streak to finish the common season. Quarterback Joe Burrow took his sport to a different degree, displaying an elite command of the offense to complete fifth in passing yards (4,475) and second in passing touchdowns (35). The Burrow-to-Ja’Marr Chase connection stays unstoppable, and the protection has been among the many league’s greatest at retaining opponents out of the tip zone (20.1 factors allowed per sport). Injuries to proper sort out La’el Collins and proper guard Alex Cappa loom massive, however Burrow was in a position to overcome poor offensive line play final postseason.
6. Baltimore Ravens
Regular-season end: 10-7, AFC North runner-up, No. 6 seed
DVOA profile: twelfth offense, seventh protection, third particular groups, seventh total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3400
The solely motive the Ravens rank this excessive is the potential return of quarterback Lamar Jackson. It seems like an eternity in the past, however with Jackson wholesome and thriving in the course of the first month of the season, the Ravens seemed like world-beaters. If they managed to carry onto double-digit leads in opposition to the Dolphins and Bills, they’d have began 5-0 in opposition to a number of the greatest groups within the AFC. It’s silly to play the “what if?” sport, however it’s onerous to not with this crew. Although Jackson struggled earlier than struggling a knee damage that would maintain him out for a sixth straight sport, he’s nonetheless, at his greatest, an MVP-caliber participant. The Ravens’ protection recovered from an early stoop to change into an elite unit, one which’s able to shutting down a number of the league’s greatest offenses when at full energy. There’s no certainty the Ravens ever discover their prime type this season, however the potential for all of it falling into place with Jackson wholesome makes them a harmful crew.
7. Dallas Cowboys
Regular-season end: 12-5, NFC East runner-up, No. 5 seed
DVOA profile: fifteenth offense, 2nd protection, tenth particular groups, sixth total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +1300
Don’t be fooled by the Cowboys’ uninspiring end to the common season. Yes, these losses to the Jaguars and Commanders had been ugly, however that is nonetheless a crew that beat Philadelphia, Minnesota and Cincinnati and has averaged a league-leading 32.5 factors per sport since quarterback Dak Prescott returned from his thumb damage in Week 7. Prescott has additionally been a part of the issue, nevertheless, throwing at the very least one interception in all however two of his begins this season. Dallas’ energy lies in its protection, which ranks second in DVOA and will get again linebacker Leighton Vander Esch and defensive sort out Johnathan Hankins for the postseason. If Prescott can reduce down on his turnovers, the Cowboys have a puncher’s likelihood within the NFC.
8. Los Angeles Chargers
Regular-season end: 10-7, AFC West runner-up, No. 5 seed
DVOA profile: nineteenth offense, sixteenth protection, sixth particular groups, 18th total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +2100
The Chargers tempted destiny in a meaningless Week 18 sport, and it may need value them. Defensive finish Joey Bosa, extensive receiver Mike Williams and linebacker Kenneth Murray all exited with accidents in a loss to the Broncos that had no bearing on Los Angeles’ playoff seeding. It’s an odd unforced error for second-year coach Brandon Staley, who has in any other case achieved a great job of shedding the curse that has lengthy haunted this franchise. Week 18 blunders apart, the Chargers did nicely to win 5 of their final seven video games and safe a playoff berth for the primary time since 2018. If Williams is wholesome and quarterback Justin Herbert has a full complement of weapons round him, Los Angeles has the firepower to maintain up with a number of the prime offenses within the AFC.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
Regular-season end: 9-8, AFC South champions, No. 4 seed
DVOA profile: ninth offense, twenty sixth protection, eleventh particular groups, thirteenth total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +4800
After ending with the league’s worst document in back-to-back seasons and beginning 2-6 this yr, there wasn’t a lot hope for a fast turnaround in Jacksonville. Even a free-agent spending spree, together with a hotly debated four-year, $72 million deal for extensive receiver Christian Kirk, elicited extra criticism than confidence that the Jaguars might return to being aggressive. However, Kirk, fellow wideout Zay Jones and tight finish Evan Engram proved to be savvy pickups, serving to 2021 No. 1 total choose Trevor Lawrence develop right into a standout quarterback in his second season. Lawrence’s sizzling streak to finish the season — he ranks second within the NFL in completion price (69.7%), third in passer ranking (104.6) and eighth in Total QBR (63.5) since November started — has the Jaguars pondering large not solely this season, however within the years to come back.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Regular-season end: 8-9, NFC South champions, No. 4 seed
DVOA profile: sixteenth offense, thirteenth protection, thirty first particular groups, seventeenth total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +2800
The Buccaneers’ hope for a deep playoff run comes down to 1 query: How a lot do you belief Tom Brady? The 45-year-old quarterback is essentially the most completed participant in league historical past, however his struggles this season are onerous to disregard. Over his final 5 full video games (he was pulled early in Week 18), he’s thrown practically as many interceptions (seven) as landing passes (10) whereas the Bucs have averaged 17.2 factors per sport. Injuries on either side of the ball have depleted what’s been one of many league’s greatest rosters over the previous three seasons, making Tampa Bay a longshot to return to the Super Bowl in what could possibly be Brady’s ultimate season.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Regular-season end: 13-4, NFC North champions, No. 3 seed
DVOA profile: twentieth offense, twenty seventh protection, thirtieth particular groups, twenty seventh total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
If the Vikings can carry their luck into the postseason, they might very nicely come away with the Lombardi Trophy. Much has been made from Minnesota’s 11-0 document in one-score video games this season, however the capacity to carry out underneath strain and shut out these victories isn’t one thing that may simply be waved away. While the protection has been one of many league’s worst this season, it’s held up late in video games, because the Vikings rank third within the NFL with a plus-9 turnover margin on drives which have began within the fourth quarter or additional time. If quarterback Kirk Cousins can get the ball to star extensive receiver Justin Jefferson constantly and keep away from these back-breaking errors, Minnesota can hold with nearly any crew.
12. New York Giants
Regular-season end: 9-7-1, Third in NFC East, No. 6 seed
DVOA profile: tenth offense, twenty ninth protection, twenty second particular groups, twenty first total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +5500
Now is after we see whether or not the Giants’ season is greater than only a feel-good story. Nobody anticipated first-year coach Brian Daboll to orchestrate such a fast turnaround, with New York returning to the postseason for the primary time since 2016. The former Bills offensive coordinator turned Daniel Jones into a possible franchise quarterback, whereas defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale acquired essentially the most out of an inexperienced and banged-up unit. The Giants are nonetheless a season or two away from being respectable Super Bowl contenders, however they’ll take delight in figuring out they’ve discovered the suitable coach. The subsequent step is including the kind of gamers Daboll desires to construct round.
13. Miami Dolphins
Regular-season end: 9-8, AFC East runner-up, No. 7 seed
DVOA profile: seventh offense, fifteenth protection, twenty eighth particular groups, eighth total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
Coach Mike McDaniel mentioned he gained’t decide about Tua Tagovailoa’s availability till he is aware of the third-year quarterback has utterly recovered from his second concussion of the season, and that’s about the place issues stand with Miami. With Tagovailoa wholesome, the offense has been one of many league’s greatest, averaging 25.5 factors per sport. With seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson or veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater underneath heart, they’ve averaged simply 16.3 factors. Wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are able to torching any secondary, however they want Tagovailoa’s effectivity to thrive. A midseason commerce for move rusher Bradley Chubb has not been sufficient to spice up the protection, both, as Miami has didn’t ship a constant move rush.
14. Seattle Seahawks
Regular-season end: 9-8, NFC West runner-up, No. 7 seed
DVOA profile: 14th offense, twenty first protection, 4th particular groups, tenth total
Odds to win Super Bowl: +6500
For the primary time since 2010, the Seahawks will play a postseason sport with out quarterback Russell Wilson. After buying and selling away its franchise icon this offseason, Seattle discovered a more-than-capable substitute in journeyman Geno Smith, who delivered a profession yr to earn Pro Bowl honors for the primary time. Buoyed by extensive receivers D.Okay. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and rookie working again Kenneth Walker III, an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, Smith completed eighth in passing yards (4,282) and fourth in passing touchdowns (30), serving to the Seahawks safe a playoff berth within the final week of the common season. While the protection hasn’t performed to its ordinary excessive customary underneath coach Pete Carroll, promising rookie cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant present hope for the long run. It doesn’t damage that Seattle will get the No. 5 choose within the 2023 draft from Denver as a part of the Wilson commerce, both.
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Source: www.bostonherald.com